Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4149…4642 crypto 190 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$144 (-7%) realized −$128 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%94W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$11
sports 2% +$27
finance 2% −$8
other 1% +$9
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -22.2% -29.6% 50% 50% -8.1%
≤30d 100 -22.2% -29.6% 50% 50% -8.1%
≤90d 110 -15.7% -23.7% 51% 51% -7.6%
all 186 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 48% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 48% -8.0%
10% -20.0% 32% -16.8%
15% -27.7% 31% -24.9%
20% -34.8% 30% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$128
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses94 / 92
Open positions4
Markets (closed)186 / 190
History coverage244d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 16¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 8¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $141 +$179 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $77 +$83 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$11 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $38 +$42 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$9 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$27 +117%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $48 +$22 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.53 · official $3.53 (match) · 727 history records