Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4148…713b sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$45 (-30%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$35
other 7% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 11 -37.6% -43.6% 27% 27% -50.0%
all 16 -10.7% -19.2% 38% 38% -45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 38% -45.5%
10% -26.9% 38% -50.7%
15% -34.0% 38% -55.5%
20% -40.5% 38% -59.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage138d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5 Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5 Apr 09 $1 +$1 +101%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 09 $2 +$4 +180%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) Apr 03 $22 +$23 +105%
Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5 Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Apr 03 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $1 +$1 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 Feb 05 $16 −$6 -38%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jan 30 $1 +$2 +212%
Pistons vs. Suns Jan 30 $1 −$1 -76%
Pistons vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Jan 30 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $37 1h
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score BUY No 32¢ $25 63d
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 68d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 68d
Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 69d
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY No 35¢ $2 69d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $1 74d
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) SELL Spurs 100¢ $45 74d
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $22 74d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $2 130d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 48¢ $1 130d
Cavaliers vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 SELL Over 31¢ $10 131d
Cavaliers vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 50¢ $16 131d
Lakers vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 135d
Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 136d
Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $2 136d
Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 136d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 100¢ $3 137d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 32¢ $1 137d
Pistons vs. Suns SELL Pistons 12¢ $0 137d
Pistons vs. Suns BUY Pistons 49¢ $1 137d
Pistons vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 SELL Over 96¢ $2 137d
Pistons vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.39 · official $36.39 (match) · 33 history records