Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4145…6366 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1
other 28% −$2
politics 10% +$1
sports 6% $0
finance 5% −$11
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 14 -1.6% -10.9% 29% 0% -10.9%
all 37 -6.5% -15.4% 35% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -10.7%
10% -23.5% 0% -19.3%
15% -30.9% 0% -27.1%
20% -37.6% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage476d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $33 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $30 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $32 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $39 −$11 -28%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $48 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files? Jun 24 $1 $0 -30%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 28 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 24 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 18? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $32 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $16 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $36 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $36 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $28 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $4 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $32 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $33 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $31 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $31 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $30 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $25 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $30 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $2 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $32 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $28 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records