Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4143…7104 crypto 1215 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,085 (-4%) realized −$1,079 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate85%1037W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$2
14 days+$30
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$178
weather 8% −$519
world 6% −$539
other 0% $0
finance 0% −$8
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -4.0% -13.2% 90% 0% -5.5%
≤30d 346 -0.5% -10.0% 90% 8% -7.8%
≤90d 1214 -2.1% -11.4% 85% 14% -11.5%
all 1214 -2.1% -11.4% 85% 14% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 14% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 3% -19.9%
15% -27.6% 2% -27.7%
20% -34.7% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$17 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$1,079
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1037 / 177
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1214 / 1215
History coverage70d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $16 $11 −$6 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $39 −$23 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $49 −$44 -90%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $44 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $46 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $43 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $38 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$5 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $39 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $49 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $48 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $47 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $39 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $38 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $38 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.55 · official $54.55 · 3272 history records