Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x413f…daac other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% +$5
other 27% −$2
politics 14% $0
culture 11% $0
economics 8% $0
sports 7% −$1
tech 7% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.4% -8.2% 20% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 13 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 13 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 0% -8.8%
all 42 -3.9% -13.1% 31% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage318d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $46 +$4 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $82 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $4 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $76 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $22 +$1 +5%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $47 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 15 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 14 $52 $0 +1%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 13 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 12 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 10 $12 $0 -2%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $6 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 10 $0 $0 -43%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 08 $3 −$2 -61%
India x Pakistan military clash by Friday? Aug 08 $1 $0 -33%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 07 $56 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $49 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $49 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $49 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $24 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $24 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $50 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $46 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $39 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $13 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $26 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $46 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $45 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $8 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.27 · official $48.27 (match) · 179 history records