Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x413f…2a15 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$777 (+23%) realized +$764 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%4W / 40L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$137
14 days+$136
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$1,101
politics 38% −$199
crypto 6% −$199
world 3% −$100
tech 1% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +716.0% +638.3% 100% 100% +638.3%
≤30d 15 -45.6% -50.8% 7% 7% -24.4%
≤90d 19 -57.1% -61.1% 5% 5% -56.8%
all 44 -53.0% -57.5% 9% 9% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.5% 9% +10.4%
10% -61.6% 9% -0.2%
15% -65.3% 9% -9.8%
20% -68.7% 9% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$575 vs −$39 · ×14.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$764
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses4 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage619d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 6¢ 12¢ $11 $24 +$13 (+118%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $19 +$137 +716%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $64 −$64 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 29 $44 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 29 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 29 $40 −$30 -74%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on September 14? Sep 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September? Sep 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1? Sep 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 31 $53 −$53 -100%
Will MrBeast raise 40m on Tuesday September 2 or later? Aug 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25? Jul 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25? Jul 25 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25? Jul 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18? Jul 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27? Jul 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20? Jul 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27? Jul 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6? Jul 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jul 07 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jul 07 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jul 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13? Jul 07 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? Jul 07 $267 −$267 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? Jul 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Jul 07 $1,275 −$199 -16%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4? Jul 07 $84 +$356 +426%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? Jun 13 $57 +$76 +134%
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? Jun 06 $566 +$1,732 +306%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $156 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $8 8d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $11 8d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $11 12d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 17d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $24 18d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $9 18d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $12 18d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $0 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.00 · official $24.00 (match) · 285 history records