Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x413d…cfce world 14 markets active 4d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$67 (-34%) realized −$57 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$1
other 28% −$49
sports 10% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 13 -36.7% -42.7% 38% 23% -39.2%
all 13 -36.7% -42.7% 38% 23% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.7% 23% -39.2%
10% -48.2% 23% -45.0%
15% -53.2% 23% -50.3%
20% -57.8% 23% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage64d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$28 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 26 $10 +$9 +85%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $10 +$11 +106%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 23 $63 +$3 +5%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 14 $5 $0 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 13 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 12 $19 −$19 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 50d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY Yes $1 51d
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? SELL Yes 91¢ $19 51d
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 52d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $21 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $66 55d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $63 55d
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? BUY No $1 62d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL No 61¢ $5 63d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 64d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $2 65d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 65d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 53¢ $19 66d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 66d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 58¢ $5 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No $1 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.64 · official $9.64 (match) · 20 history records