trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -36.7% | -42.7% | 38% | 23% | -39.2% |
| all | 13 | -36.7% | -42.7% | 38% | 23% | -39.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -42.7% | 23% | -39.2% |
| 10% | -48.2% | 23% | -45.0% |
| 15% | -53.2% | 23% | -50.3% |
| 20% | -57.8% | 23% | -55.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 28¢ | 14¢ | $20 | $10 | −$10 (-52%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Jun 13 | $30 | −$28 | -93% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 11 | $21 | −$20 | -94% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Apr 27 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | Apr 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? | Apr 26 | $10 | +$9 | +85% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Apr 25 | $10 | +$11 | +106% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | Apr 23 | $63 | +$3 | +5% |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | Apr 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Apr 14 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Apr 13 | $2 | +$1 | +53% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | Apr 12 | $3 | −$1 | -31% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 12 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |