Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x413b…86c0 other 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-8%) realized −$100 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$4
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 26% −$82
other 19% +$2
weather 18% −$50
world 14% +$48
sports 8% −$12
politics 7% −$2
tech 4% −$1
finance 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.8% -6.1% 52% 22% -10.9%
≤30d 65 -29.6% -36.3% 38% 23% -25.0%
≤90d 65 -29.6% -36.3% 38% 23% -25.0%
all 65 -29.6% -36.3% 38% 23% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 23% -25.0%
10% -42.4% 12% -32.2%
15% -48.0% 8% -38.8%
20% -53.1% 6% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions50
Markets (closed)65 / 115
History coverage15d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 93¢ $5 $31 +$26 (+565%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Rodrigo De Paul be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 95¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? No 94¢ 93¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? No 85¢ 90¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 77¢ 74¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? No 92¢ 70¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-23%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 62¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-30%)
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat? No 87¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Yes 12¢ 28¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+137%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.0B? Yes 99¢ 80¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 10 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $26 −$9 -34%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 10 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-16 House seat? Jun 10 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 10 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 10 $19 +$4 +20%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $5 +$26 +570%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 6? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 11? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4? Jun 05 $0 +$1 +525%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $20 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $19 −$8 -40%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? Jun 04 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 5? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 5? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $22 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 5? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on June 5? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 33m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 33m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 22h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 22h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.98 · official $351.54 (match) · 254 history records