Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
41 0x413b…1f5b sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$65 (+21%) realized +$61 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$15
other 34% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +39.5% +26.2% 86% 86% +11.1%
≤30d 10 +37.9% +24.8% 90% 80% +13.1%
≤90d 10 +37.9% +24.8% 90% 80% +13.1%
all 10 +37.9% +24.8% 90% 80% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.8% 80% +13.1%
10% +12.9% 60% +2.3%
15% +2.0% 60% -7.6%
20% -8.0% 50% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$50 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage17d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$16 +51%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$31 +121%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 +$21 +69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$5 +21%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $16 +$9 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 30 $5 $0 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $1 $0 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.95 · official $53.95 (match) · 26 history records