Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x413a…8eb3 crypto 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$107 (-1%) realized −$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate88%134W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$188
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.3% -14.3% 82% 9% -17.8%
≤30d 83 +0.9% -8.7% 93% 16% -11.7%
≤90d 153 +1.0% -8.6% 88% 29% -11.8%
all 153 +1.0% -8.6% 88% 29% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 29% -11.8%
10% -17.4% 11% -20.2%
15% -25.4% 5% -28.0%
20% -32.7% 1% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$44 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses134 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage36d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 18 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 18 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 18 $121 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 18 $115 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 18 $113 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 18 $107 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 18 $105 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 18 $92 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 18 $91 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 18 $86 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 18 $82 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 18 $71 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 18 $68 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 18 $64 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 18 $53 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 18 $42 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 18 $36 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 18 $29 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 18 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 18 $18 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 18 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 18 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 18 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 18 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 18 $61 −$48 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 18 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 18 $81 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 18 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 18 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 18 $60 +$6 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $42 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $125 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $125 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $121 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $115 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $113 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $107 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $105 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $92 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $91 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $86 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $82 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $71 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $68 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $64 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $53 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 358 history records