Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4138…ed73
crypto · 278 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$40 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$55 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses146 / 124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)270 / 278
History coverage13d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 270 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$42
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 73¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 67¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +87%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% +$85
other 17% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $7 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 55% -6.4%
≤30d 270 -0.6% -10.0% 54% 54% -5.7%
≤90d 270 -0.6% -10.0% 54% 54% -5.7%
all 270 -0.6% -10.0% 54% 54% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 54% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 53% -14.7%
15% -26.5% 50% -22.9%
20% -33.7% 42% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.21 · official $2.51 (match) · 572 history records