Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4136…3624
crypto · 7 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$110 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61 · open −$49
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$96
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 2 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$22 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$13 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$49
crypto 28% −$39
sports 18% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $29 34m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $96 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-62.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -58.6% -62.5% 20% 20% -52.6%
≤30d 5 -58.6% -62.5% 20% 20% -52.6%
≤90d 5 -58.6% -62.5% 20% 20% -52.6%
all 5 -58.6% -62.5% 20% 20% -52.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.5% 20% -52.6%
10% -66.1% 20% -57.1%
15% -69.4% 20% -61.3%
20% -72.4% 20% -65.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.19 · official $96.19 (match) · 10 history records