Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4135…185f sports 1227 markets active 1d ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$257 (-2%) realized −$257 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%604W / 623L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$100
14 days−$74
30 days−$2,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$323
other 10% −$15
finance 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 38% -19.6%
≤30d 759 -29.5% -36.3% 35% 33% -40.3%
≤90d 1227 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 46% -12.3%
all 1227 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 46% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 46% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 46% -20.7%
15% -28.1% 42% -28.3%
20% -35.2% 32% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses604 / 623
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1227 / 1227
History coverage58d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1227 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 16 $5 −$4 -85%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +92%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$8 +74%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $5 +$3 +70%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $10 −$5 -53%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$2 -10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$10 +194%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$5 -52%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 72¢ $5 28h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 28h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 66¢ $5 30h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $4 30h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Martina Trevisan 58¢ $5 30h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Kimberly Birrell 55¢ $5 30h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 30¢ $5 30h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Hubert Hurkacz 50¢ $5 30h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 51¢ $5 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $5 31h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 31¢ $5 31h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez SELL Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ $2 33h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 51¢ $5 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $15 36h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 35¢ $2 38h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 35¢ $1 38h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 35¢ $3 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $5 39h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $9 39h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 0¢ $0 40h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 39¢ $4 41h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 1¢ $0 41h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 6¢ $1 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 63¢ $5 41h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $13 42h
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 59¢ $5 44h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 52¢ $5 44h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 37¢ $5 44h
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 51¢ $5 45h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 64¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3063 history records