Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
41 0x4133…ea5d world 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35,045 (+6%) realized +$33,920 · open +$1,125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate79%125W / 33L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$3,792per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$19,973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$273
7 days+$294
14 days+$155
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$23,124
politics 23% +$2,856
other 8% +$4,060
economics 5% −$200
sports 2% +$1,979
tech 1% +$31
crypto 1% +$44
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +41.2% +27.8% 83% 67% +4.1%
≤30d 11 +18.2% +6.9% 64% 36% -8.2%
≤90d 128 +29.5% +17.2% 77% 31% -4.5%
all 158 +25.3% +13.4% 79% 30% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.4% 30% -5.0%
10% +2.5% 16% -14.1%
15% ← realistic here -7.4% 9% -22.4%
20% -16.4% 7% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$3,179) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$171 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.45 per $1 lost it wins $6.45
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$19,973
Realized+$33,920
Unrealized+$1,125
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses125 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions9
Markets (closed)158 / 167
History coverage106d
Avg bet$3,792
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $6,954 $7,791 +$837 (+12%)
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? No 85¢ 83¢ $6,643 $6,452 −$191 (-3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 86¢ 97¢ $1,967 $2,207 +$240 (+12%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $1,010 $1,074 +$64 (+6%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 90¢ 92¢ $874 $892 +$17 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $899 $854 −$45 (-5%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 68¢ 96¢ $486 $690 +$204 (+42%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? Jun 29 $221 +$11 +5%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July? Jun 28 $3 +$5 +191%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Jun 28 $1,209 +$217 +18%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 27 $145 +$41 +28%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 27 $201 +$95 +47%
Netanyahu out by July 31? Jun 24 $179 −$74 -42%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 21 $50 −$9 -18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $789 −$131 -16%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $4,904 +$96 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $613 −$97 -16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5,406 +$44 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $5,003 −$31 -1%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? May 25 $503 −$503 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 6? May 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $4,230 +$570 +14%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $199 +$825 +414%
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 May 09 $19,411 +$776 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 07 $100 −$55 -55%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 06 $807 +$1,358 +168%
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? May 06 $4,754 +$138 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 06 $13 +$120 +921%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $2,651 +$295 +11%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 30 $1 $0 +30%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 27 $601 +$252 +42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $318 +$39 +12%
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliament Apr 22 $930 +$68 +7%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 22 $114 +$21 +19%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 22 $175 −$175 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $7,181 +$74 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $130 −$55 -42%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 21 $7,023 +$670 +10%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 75-79 seats in the 2026 Bul Apr 20 $95 +$5 +5%
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third Apr 20 $1,922 +$271 +14%
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish secon Apr 20 $1,850 +$142 +8%
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamen Apr 20 $121 +$9 +7%
Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30? Apr 20 $47 +$14 +29%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win fewer than 75 seats in the 2026 Bul Apr 20 $66 +$4 +6%
Will Revival (Vazrazhdane) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliame Apr 20 $328 +$7 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 20 $2,681 −$2,130 -80%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary el Apr 20 $897 +$20 +2%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win 95 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgar Apr 19 $270 +$60 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $1,210 +$358 +30%
Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026? Apr 18 $215 +$15 +7%
Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $389 +$70 +18%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $31,452 −$180 -1%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 7 to Apri Apr 15 $11 −$5 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 14 $24 +$36 +150%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $264 +$16 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Apr 13 $25 −$2 -6%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $852 +$29 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 44m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? SELL No 78¢ $232 1h
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $5 12h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July? SELL No 32¢ $8 24h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $209 39h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $186 39h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,000 39h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July? BUY No 11¢ $3 46h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 97¢ $297 2d
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY No 73¢ $221 2d
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $15 2d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $52 2d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $760 2d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $198 3d
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $15 3d
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $639 4d
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $10 4d
Netanyahu out by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $105 4d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 90¢ $879 4d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 66¢ $201 7d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 68¢ $486 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $35 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,972.98 · official $19,973.28 (match) · 2319 history records