Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:29:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4133…165b sports 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (165 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42,572 (-26%) realized −$31,446 · open −$11,126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%68W / 112L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$875per market
Trades / day165.0pace
Fees−$2,990est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,370
7 days−$3,546
14 days−$19,005
30 days−$22,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$33,894
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (165 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -52.2% -56.7% 22% 22% -33.4%
≤30d 180 -7.0% -15.8% 38% 36% -25.1%
≤90d 180 -7.0% -15.8% 38% 36% -25.1%
all 180 -7.0% -15.8% 38% 36% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 36% -25.1%
10% -23.9% 32% -32.3%
15% ← realistic here -31.2% 30% -38.8%
20% -38.0% 25% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$929) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$924 vs −$765 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$31,446
Unrealized−$11,126
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses68 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$2,990
Open positions7
Markets (closed)180 / 187
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$875
Trades / day165.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Game Master 46¢ 64¢ $78 $109 +$31 (+39%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 36¢ 36¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Mentality Monster 59¢ 100¢ $19 $33 +$13 (+69%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Cloud Rising 17¢ 0¢ $3,320 $10 −$3,310 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Cloud Rising 29¢ 0¢ $3,500 $6 −$3,494 (-100%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs NA, wed win 44¢ 0¢ $4,159 $5 −$4,154 (-100%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 1 Winner NA, wed win 33¢ 0¢ $117 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner D family 43¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $1,194 −$1,151 -96%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $225 −$219 -97%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $2,504 −$507 -20%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $1,238 −$998 -81%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $21 +$5 +26%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $124 +$14 +11%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $2,238 +$3,447 +154%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $168 −$147 -87%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,263 −$1,237 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $169 −$165 -97%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $513 −$402 -78%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs cincai team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $476 −$465 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $159 −$155 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $318 −$311 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,314 −$1,282 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $700 +$932 +133%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $917 −$901 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $11,730 −$10,147 -86%
Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $89 −$88 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,839 −$1,364 -74%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,921 −$2,863 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $10,080 −$3,404 -34%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $86 +$142 +165%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6,851 +$5,672 +83%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $971 −$957 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $7,111 −$7,000 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $261 +$78 +30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $6,362 −$6,214 -98%
Dota 2: Hive vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,645 −$1,613 -98%
Dota 2: Hive vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $451 −$440 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs BALU - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,291 −$1,258 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $3,181 +$11,211 +352%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League G Jun 06 $109 +$64 +59%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $290 +$835 +288%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $588 −$575 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,745 +$198 +11%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1,203 −$1,176 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $272 −$266 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $1,191 −$193 -16%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $578 −$568 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $177 +$73 +41%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $4,788 −$4,685 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $337 +$351 +104%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,561 +$1,433 +92%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $672 +$288 +43%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,646 −$258 -16%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,193 +$922 +77%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1,070 −$1,045 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 42¢ $39 1m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $41 4m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 34¢ $41 4m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 50¢ $40 11m
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 59¢ $20 40m
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 43¢ $51 48m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 8¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 8¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 7¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 9¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 9¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 9¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 18¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 18¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 15¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 18¢ $206 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 19¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 17¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 13¢ $42 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 10¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 18¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 18¢ $76 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 18¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 20¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 17¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 10¢ $59 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.18 · official $252.80 · 3500 history records