Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:28:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4132…aba5 other 30 markets active 7d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$436 (-19%) realized −$436 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%6W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$716
30 days−$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$376
sports 39% −$37
world 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-52.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 30 -47.2% -52.2% 20% 20% -27.8%
≤90d 30 -47.2% -52.2% 20% 20% -27.8%
all 30 -47.2% -52.2% 20% 20% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.2% 20% -27.8%
10% -56.8% 20% -34.7%
15% -61.0% 17% -41.0%
20% -64.8% 17% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$62 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$436
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses6 / 24
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage7d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$65 +262%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$46 -91%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $96 +$32 +33%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 +$140 +227%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $84 +$190 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $286 +$346 +121%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $106 −$104 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $108 −$105 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $244 +$253 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 7d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $51 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 9d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 9d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 10d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 10d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 11d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 11d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 11d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $51 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $5 11d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 11d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $129 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $201 11d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $96 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 11d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $84 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $138 12d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $132 12d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $286 12d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $23 12d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $14 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records