Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x4132…a5a5 sports 799 markets active 0h ago coverage 600d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 599d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33,517 (-7%) realized −$33,484 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%418W / 377L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$592per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$402est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,012
7 days−$2,616
14 days+$1,045
30 days+$1,045
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$21,051
other 20% −$5,209
crypto 0% −$1,453
world 0% −$1,223
politics 0% +$15
tech 0% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 48% -14.7%
≤30d 66 +6.3% -3.8% 58% 50% -7.6%
≤90d 75 -6.4% -15.4% 51% 44% -23.8%
all 795 -4.1% -13.2% 53% 50% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 50% -15.1%
10% -21.5% 45% -23.2%
15% -29.1% 37% -30.6%
20% -36.0% 29% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$750) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$370 vs −$487 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$1,867
Realized−$33,484
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses418 / 377
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$402
Open positions3
Markets (closed)795 / 799
History coverage600d ⚠
Avg bet$592
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 795 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1,000 $1,010 +$10 (+1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 66¢ 68¢ $450 $461 +$11 (+3%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 53¢ 46¢ $450 $395 −$55 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,515 +$419 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,997 +$1,508 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $179 −$179 -100%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $504 +$155 +31%
Parma (Doubles): Paul/Seggerman vs Galan/Tobon Jun 18 $507 −$17 -3%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $502 +$66 +13%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $329 +$361 +110%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,985 +$634 +32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $808 +$1,177 +146%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 17 $304 −$304 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 17 $343 −$343 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 17 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $507 −$507 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 17 $703 −$703 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 17 $535 −$535 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,053 −$3,053 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $474 +$333 +70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 17 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $686 −$686 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $819 −$819 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 17 $1,412 −$1,412 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 17 $242 −$242 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 17 $1,244 −$1,244 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $2,714 −$2,714 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $565 −$565 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 17 $996 −$996 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $1,886 −$204 -11%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $1,008 +$344 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,516 +$828 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,510 +$454 +30%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $325 +$175 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $610 +$785 +129%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $1,071 +$129 +12%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $252 −$18 -7%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1,001 +$17 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $999 +$85 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,005 +$1,811 +180%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $102 +$181 +177%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $101 +$56 +55%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $145 +$133 +92%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $70 +$83 +118%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $780 +$220 +28%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $440 +$560 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 8m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $455 9m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 53¢ $456 9m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,934 47m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,515 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $492 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $496 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,008 5h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 6¢ $117 8h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 31¢ $61 8h
Parma (Doubles): Paul/Seggerman vs Galan/Tobon BUY Paul/Seggerman 51¢ $507 9h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 76¢ $504 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $213 9h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 88¢ $502 10h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 47¢ $329 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $167 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $630 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $475 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,500 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $805 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $474 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 29h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $289 30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $200 30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,042 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,866.54 · official $1,909.00 · 3500 history records