Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4131…d591
other · 560 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$631 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$459 · open −$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$630
Realized−$459
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses178 / 340
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions39
Markets (closed)518 / 560
History coverage73d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day42.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 39 History 518 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$241
14 days−$1,374
30 days−$1,113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $246 $133 −$113 (-46%)
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $48 $58 +$10 (+21%)
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $39 $44 +$5 (+14%)
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 79¢ $31 $40 +$8 (+26%)
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 26¢ 56¢ $14 $31 +$17 (+116%)
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 50¢ 74¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+47%)
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? No 53¢ 68¢ $23 $30 +$7 (+28%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 150 and 160? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-9%)
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 64¢ 65¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 11¢ 20¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+89%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 71¢ 58¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+71%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 7¢ 13¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+86%)
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernardo Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
Rainbow Six Siege: CAG Osaka vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC N Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Future perform "PLUTOSKI" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 -1%
Will Future perform "Sh!t" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $54 +$5 +9%
Will Future perform "712PM" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be less than 140? Jun 12 $122 −$1 -1%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $15 −$2 -11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +187%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 11 $126 −$2 -1%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 11 $19 −$9 -49%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $29 +$23 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 11 $26 −$18 -69%
LA Mayoral Election: Spencer Pratt receives Over/Under 25%? Jun 10 $80 +$12 +14%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $93 −$3 -3%
Will Graham Platner win between 70% and 75% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 10 $69 +$37 +53%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 10 $179 +$111 +62%
Will Graham Platner win between 80% and 85% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 10 $51 +$8 +16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $189 +$43 +22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $71 +$4 +5%
Will Graham Platner win less than 65% of votes in the Maine Senate Dem Jun 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove Jun 09 $155 −$2 -1%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Govern Jun 09 $23 −$1 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $29 +$32 +109%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$9 -97%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8? Jun 08 $90 +$8 +8%
Will voter turnout be at least 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zamb Jun 08 $113 +$31 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $10 +$10 +96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $12 +$6 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shaiikademy vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Pacific Lea Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$3 +12%
Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zam Jun 08 $52 +$2 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8? Jun 08 $56 −$2 -4%
MLP St. Louis: St. Louis Shock vs Los Angeles Mad Drops Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1. Jun 07 $116 +$24 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $0 $0 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 -5%
Rainbow Six Siege: TYLOO vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S Jun 07 $0 $0 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% −$36
sports 27% −$746
finance 15% +$101
politics 15% +$253
tech 5% −$6
world 4% +$1
weather 3% −$89
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 77¢ $44 19m
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 65¢ $14 28m
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 50¢ $50 28m
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 69¢ $54 51m
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 71¢ $14 55m
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 71¢ $14 57m
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 67¢ $61 1h
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 67¢ $47 1h
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 41¢ $9 1h
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 69¢ $5 1h
Will Bernardo Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 86¢ $17 1h
Will Bernardo Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 1h
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 52¢ $58 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $29 2h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: Kingzone vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - CN League Stag SELL Leviatán Esports 38¢ $16 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: Kingzone vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - CN League Stag SELL Leviatán Esports 38¢ $3 3h
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: Kingzone vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - CN League Stag BUY Leviatán Esports 6¢ $6 3h
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S BUY Yes 10¢ $19 3h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 4h
Rainbow Six Siege: CAG Osaka vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC N BUY RRX 0¢ $0 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: CAG Osaka vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC N BUY RRX 0¢ $0 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: CAG Osaka vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC N BUY RRX 0¢ $0 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: CAG Osaka vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC N BUY RRX 0¢ $0 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: CAG Osaka vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC N BUY RRX 0¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -22.9% -30.2% 37% 25% +1.5%
≤30d 348 -15.8% -23.8% 31% 22% -18.6%
≤90d 518 +9.2% -1.2% 34% 26% -12.7%
all 518 +9.2% -1.2% 34% 26% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 26% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 21% -21.0%
15% -19.3% 18% -28.7%
20% -27.2% 15% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $629.74 · official $635.74 (match) · 3500 history records