Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x412d…4f0d crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$231 (-3%) realized −$231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%27W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$205
14 days+$205
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +43.6% +29.9% 83% 83% +31.0%
≤30d 6 +43.6% +29.9% 83% 83% +31.0%
≤90d 6 +43.6% +29.9% 83% 83% +31.0%
all 42 +2.5% -7.3% 64% 57% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 57% -12.6%
10% -16.1% 50% -20.9%
15% -24.2% 31% -28.6%
20% -31.7% 21% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$96 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses27 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage96d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $62 +$47 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 26 $28 −$14 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 26 $372 −$83 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 26 $176 +$49 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 26 $312 −$106 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 26 $94 +$67 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 26 $53 −$49 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 25 $663 −$325 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 25 $300 −$72 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 25 $503 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 25 $314 +$90 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 25 $166 +$148 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 25 $137 +$31 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 23 $13 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 23 $71 −$59 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 23 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 23 $146 +$108 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 23 $92 +$27 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 23 $85 −$45 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 23 $81 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 23 $60 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 23 $39 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 23 $19 +$20 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 23 $183 −$164 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 23 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 23 $242 +$44 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 23 $100 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 23 $309 +$65 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 23 $334 −$77 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 23 $152 +$79 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 23 $115 +$39 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 23 $289 −$173 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 23 $380 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 23 $100 +$43 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 23 $50 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 23 $50 +$21 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $136 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $15 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $14 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $14 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $21 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $140 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $141 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $111 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $113 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $100 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $100 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $65 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $66 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $58 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $59 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $53 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $53 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $22 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $10 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $172 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $122 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records