Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x412b…cbc1
crypto · 468 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$136 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$137 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses344 / 122
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)466 / 468
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 466 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$53
14 days+$130
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 69¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
76ers vs. Pelicans 76ers 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Clippers vs. 76ers Clippers 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Pelicans 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $65 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $64 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$16 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$19 +367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% +$132
sports 2% −$1
economics 1% +$1
politics 0% +$7
other 0% +$2
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +5.0% -5.0% 49% 46% -3.2%
≤30d 359 -1.3% -10.7% 74% 31% -6.5%
≤90d 376 -1.8% -11.2% 73% 32% -6.7%
all 466 -2.0% -11.3% 74% 31% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 31% -7.1%
10% -19.8% 23% -16.0%
15% -27.5% 16% -24.1%
20% -34.6% 13% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.07 · official $1.07 (match) · 1099 history records