Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:29:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x412b…c0dc
crypto · 1739 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$199 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$199 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1670 / 120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1790 / 1739
History coverage26d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day70.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1790 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$176
14 days−$175
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 99¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 9.5 Total Co Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 400 -13.4% -21.7% 82% 12% -37.3%
≤30d 1790 -2.9% -12.1% 93% 6% -10.5%
≤90d 1790 -2.9% -12.1% 93% 6% -10.5%
all 1790 -2.9% -12.1% 93% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover70.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 6% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 1% -19.0%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.83 (match) · 3500 history records