Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
41 0x412a…a183 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$32 (+8%) realized +$11 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 50% +40.8%
≤30d 21 +11.2% +0.6% 52% 52% -1.4%
≤90d 21 +11.2% +0.6% 52% 52% -1.4%
all 21 +11.2% +0.6% 52% 52% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 52% -1.4%
10% -9.0% 52% -10.8%
15% -17.8% 52% -19.4%
20% -25.8% 52% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage27d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 76¢ $29 $50 +$21 (+74%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 49¢ 50¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $40 +$32 +79%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 03 $15 −$14 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $17 +$17 +97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $21 −$21 -98%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano May 31 $15 +$17 +109%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 31 $20 +$17 +82%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $12 +$12 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $11 −$10 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $11 −$11 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $26 −$26 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $12 +$9 +79%
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5) May 30 $6 +$6 +95%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $10 +$15 +158%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha May 29 $11 +$13 +114%
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) May 29 $8 +$13 +165%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) May 28 $24 −$23 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 28 $16 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 May 28 $25 +$17 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $29 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 49¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 51¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 55¢ $40 24h
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 45¢ $15 20d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 57¢ $12 22d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Lynn Vision 44¢ $21 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 50¢ $17 22d
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano SELL Pallacanestro Brescia 100¢ $32 23d
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Pallacanestro Brescia 47¢ $15 23d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 100¢ $37 23d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 54¢ $14 23d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 54¢ $7 23d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $12 24d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $12 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana BUY Francisco Comesana 36¢ $11 24d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $11 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $26 24d
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 56¢ $10 24d
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 56¢ $1 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 38¢ $10 25d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $11 25d
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) BUY NIP 37¢ $8 26d
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5) BUY Conviction 51¢ $4 26d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 52¢ $17 26d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Las Vegas Aces 61¢ $15 26d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 62¢ $16 26d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 52¢ $7 26d
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5) BUY Conviction 51¢ $3 26d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 SELL FOKUS 100¢ $42 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.06 · official $64.76 · 40 history records