Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4128…eee9
crypto · 564 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$175 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$173 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses241 / 320
Open positions3
Markets (closed)561 / 564
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day52.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 561 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$107
14 days−$148
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 30¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 34¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$11 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$174
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 -25.7% -32.8% 36% 35% -27.3%
≤30d 561 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 43% -18.6%
≤90d 561 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 43% -18.6%
all 561 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 43% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 43% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 40% -26.4%
15% -35.3% 36% -33.5%
20% -41.6% 29% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.17 · official $5.17 (match) · 1341 history records