Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
41 0x4127…0136 world 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+2%) realized +$145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$12
14 days+$21
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$45
sports 32% +$7
other 17% +$96
economics 8% $0
culture 3% $0
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 56% 11% -8.6%
≤30d 31 +1.3% -8.4% 52% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 46 +16.2% +5.1% 52% 11% -7.5%
all 59 +12.9% +2.2% 51% 10% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 10% -7.7%
10% -7.6% 5% -16.5%
15% -16.5% 5% -24.6%
20% -24.7% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.86 per $1 lost it wins $8.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage304d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $163 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $7 $0 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $120 +$14 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $313 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $82 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $200 −$6 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $127 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $131 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $47 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $212 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $242 +$3 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $168 +$3 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $108 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $119 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $2 $0 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $304 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $109 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $102 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $99 −$2 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 01 $103 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $104 +$5 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $109 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $197 +$10 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $101 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $55 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 06 $47 +$3 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $121 −$4 -4%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $49 +$2 +4%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $51 −$2 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $656 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $20 +$97 +475%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $593 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $1,268 +$1 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $566 $0 -0%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $217 $0 -0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 14 $231 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $239 +$6 +3%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 13 $6 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $66 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $14 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $97 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $15 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $122 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 56¢ $43 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 56¢ $92 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $10 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $110 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $56 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $52 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $27 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $83 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $82 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $53 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $29 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $43 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $34 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $83 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $41 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $75 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.40 · official $65.76 (match) · 277 history records