Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4125…868c weather 451 markets active 12h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$719 (-6%) realized −$719 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate16%70W / 381L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$90
14 days−$153
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$195
weather 19% −$152
sports 16% −$119
world 10% −$43
politics 8% −$77
finance 8% −$142
tech 4% −$12
culture 2% −$33
crypto 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -14.8% -22.9% 9% 3% -16.3%
≤30d 200 -14.4% -22.6% 10% 4% -16.3%
≤90d 331 -13.2% -21.4% 13% 5% -15.9%
all 451 -12.6% -20.9% 16% 6% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 6% -15.4%
10% -28.5% 3% -23.5%
15% -35.4% 2% -30.9%
20% -41.7% 1% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$719
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses70 / 381
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)451 / 451
History coverage210d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 451 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $48 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 17 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Jun 17 $18 $0 -1%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $4 $0 -7%
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele Jun 17 $2 $0 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 17 $12 −$3 -28%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -60%
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $46 −$1 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $45 −$1 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $22 −$2 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 $0 -1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 16 $12 −$1 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $12 −$3 -23%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $7 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $14 −$4 -31%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $28 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $48 −$22 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $73 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 63¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 67¢ $6 12h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 73¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 67¢ $27 12h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 86¢ $43 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 67¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 67¢ $24 12h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $15 12h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 89¢ $44 12h
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 12h
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 12h
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? SELL No 10¢ $5 14h
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 12¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun SELL Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 14h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $2 15h
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele SELL Yes 94¢ $1 16h
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele SELL No 4¢ $1 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $1 16h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 16h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 16h
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 5¢ $1 16h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1753 history records