Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
41 0x4123…4954 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$91 (+9%) realized +$92 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% $0
crypto 14% +$92
sports 9% −$1
politics 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 42% +2.8%
≤30d 33 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 42% +2.8%
≤90d 33 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 42% +2.8%
all 33 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 42% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 42% +2.8%
10% -24.0% 39% -7.0%
15% -31.4% 36% -16.0%
20% -38.1% 30% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$15 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $50 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $132 +$92 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +39%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $132 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 44h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 44h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.22 · official $293.35 (match) · 59 history records