Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4121…980e crypto 207 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate88%183W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 +7.9% -2.3% 88% 9% -9.4%
≤30d 207 +7.9% -2.3% 88% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 207 +7.9% -2.3% 88% 9% -9.4%
all 207 +7.9% -2.3% 88% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 9% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -18.1%
15% -20.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -28.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses183 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)207 / 207
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 207 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $91 −$18 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $84 −$13 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $86 −$17 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $83 −$27 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $90 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $76 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $84 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $89 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $86 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $70 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $97 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $92 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $89 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $73 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $95 −$32 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $90 −$28 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $86 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $84 −$18 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $84 −$20 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $77 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $80 −$22 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $87 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $83 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $81 −$18 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $0 +$1 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $68 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $91 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $66 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $84 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $69 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $86 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $78 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $82 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $71 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 622 history records