Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x4121…6e58 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-4%) realized −$36 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$20
world 32% −$5
sports 15% −$71
crypto 4% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.3% -31.5% 44% 44% -20.1%
≤30d 9 -24.3% -31.5% 44% 44% -20.1%
≤90d 9 -24.3% -31.5% 44% 44% -20.1%
all 9 -24.3% -31.5% 44% 44% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 44% -20.1%
10% -38.1% 44% -27.7%
15% -44.1% 33% -34.7%
20% -49.6% 11% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$61 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $101 −$71 -70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$43 -85%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$38 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 7h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $30 7h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 31h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $101 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 40¢ $366 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $322 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.80 · official $219.80 (match) · 21 history records