Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x411e…2e0d crypto 1776 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%1722W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day58.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 439 -11.7% -20.1% 86% 3% -54.7%
≤30d 1808 -3.2% -12.4% 94% 3% -17.8%
≤90d 1830 -3.2% -12.4% 94% 3% -17.6%
all 1830 -3.2% -12.4% 94% 3% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 3% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 0% -25.5%
15% -28.4% 0% -32.7%
20% -35.5% 0% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$45 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1722 / 108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1830 / 1776
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day58.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1830 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $15 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.22 · official $22.22 (match) · 3500 history records