Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x411e…72f0 sports 805 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$349 (-1%) realized −$348 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%465W / 338L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$246est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days+$43
14 days−$438
30 days−$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$409
other 11% −$184
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +0.2% -9.3% 64% 57% -8.8%
≤30d 293 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 54% -12.5%
≤90d 803 -3.2% -12.4% 58% 55% -11.5%
all 803 -3.2% -12.4% 58% 55% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 55% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 50% -20.0%
15% -28.4% 39% -27.7%
20% -35.4% 20% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$348
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses465 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$246
Open positions1
Markets (closed)803 / 805
History coverage60d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 803 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Madison Keys 76¢ 76¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $169 +$81 +48%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $151 −$151 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $303 +$109 +36%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $152 +$86 +57%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $45 +$9 +20%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $302 +$45 +15%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $302 +$97 +32%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen Jun 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola Jun 25 $365 −$298 -82%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng Jun 25 $334 +$31 +9%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald Jun 25 $256 +$78 +30%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 25 $267 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $152 −$101 -66%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Jun 25 $265 +$3 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $91 +$39 +43%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $101 +$34 +34%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig Jun 24 $337 +$78 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chris Rodesch vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 24 $151 +$65 +43%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs August Holmgren Jun 24 $269 −$269 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina Jun 24 $117 +$34 +29%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $10 −$1 -14%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 24 $246 +$19 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris Jun 24 $141 +$91 +64%
Targu Mures: Marko Topo vs Martin Krumich Jun 24 $5 +$4 +73%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Giles Hussey vs Joao Fonseca Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 24 $150 −$19 -12%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $30 +$27 +89%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $151 +$42 +28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $198 +$39 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $181 +$17 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $3 +$2 +73%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu Jun 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 +$12 +50%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Jun 20 $30 +$7 +24%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Marc-Andrea H Jun 20 $30 +$10 +33%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 76¢ $151 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 6h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $30 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $293 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 100¢ $238 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $55 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 82¢ $55 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $119 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $119 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $146 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 63¢ $101 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 63¢ $51 19h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 67¢ $45 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 96¢ $347 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 83¢ $302 19h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 100¢ $400 19h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 75¢ $302 30h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 71¢ $151 31h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 55¢ $67 42h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 11¢ $66 42h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 58¢ $365 43h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng SELL Michael Zheng 100¢ $365 43h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 91¢ $334 45h
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald SELL Cezar Cretu 100¢ $335 45h
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald BUY Cezar Cretu 76¢ $256 46h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon SELL Soon-Woo Kwon 61¢ $256 46h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 62¢ $267 46h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris SELL Billy Harris 69¢ $267 46h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 67¢ $265 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.01 · official $149.01 (match) · 1899 history records