Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
41 0x411d…a0b1 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$151 · open −$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$118
other 29% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.8% +7.5% 75% 75% +8.8%
≤30d 4 +18.8% +7.5% 75% 75% +8.8%
≤90d 4 +18.8% +7.5% 75% 75% +8.8%
all 4 +18.8% +7.5% 75% 75% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 75% +8.8%
10% -2.8% 75% -1.6%
15% -12.2% 50% -11.1%
20% -20.8% 50% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$220 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$702
Realized+$151
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $708 $702 −$6 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$181 +89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $296 +$154 +52%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $222 +$74 +34%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $223 −$220 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $718 2m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $133 42m
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $384 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $450 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $296 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $296 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $222 26h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $223 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $701.83 · official $701.83 (match) · 9 history records