Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x411d…4d96 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+3%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$52
other 27% +$62
sports 15% −$7
world 1% +$2
crypto 0% −$10
economics 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +24.9% +13.0% 100% 67% -0.3%
≤30d 6 -37.5% -43.5% 50% 33% -5.7%
≤90d 6 -37.5% -43.5% 50% 33% -5.7%
all 36 -23.8% -31.1% 53% 31% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 31% -5.0%
10% -37.7% 17% -14.1%
15% -43.7% 14% -22.4%
20% -49.2% 8% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage611d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $501 +$47 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Pistons vs. Knicks Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Jan 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024? Jan 23 $5 $0 +4%
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? Jan 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 23 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 23 $570 +$28 +5%
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state? Nov 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? Nov 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? Nov 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $10 +$7 +67%
Kamala Harris fires campaign manager? Nov 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $492 +$35 +7%
Kings vs. Lakers Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Hawks Oct 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Bucks Oct 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Oct 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election? Oct 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets Oct 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Oct 25 $15 +$16 +108%
Celtics vs. Wizards Oct 25 $2 −$2 -83%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024? Oct 24 $10 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Clippers Oct 24 $2 +$4 +195%
Grizzlies vs. Jazz Oct 24 $70 +$22 +31%
Nets vs. Hawks Oct 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Oct 24 $10 $0 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Oct 23 $5 $0 -1%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Oct 23 $99 +$20 +20%
Knicks vs. Celtics Oct 23 $43 +$3 +7%
Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? Oct 21 $20 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 47h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $10 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $10 19d
Pistons vs. Knicks BUY Pistons 13¢ $10 429d
Timberwolves vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 67¢ $10 429d
Will Biden finish his term? BUY Yes 92¢ $11 583d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 95¢ $570 591d
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 591d
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 94¢ $180 603d
Kings vs. Lakers BUY Kings 16¢ $1 603d
Grizzlies vs. Rockets BUY Grizzlies 10¢ $1 605d
Bulls vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 25¢ $1 605d
Hornets vs. Hawks BUY Hornets 30¢ $1 605d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 16¢ $1 605d
Grizzlies vs. Rockets BUY Grizzlies 71¢ $5 605d
Grizzlies vs. Rockets BUY Grizzlies 64¢ $10 605d
Timberwolves vs. Kings BUY Timberwolves 43¢ $5 605d
Timberwolves vs. Kings BUY Timberwolves 51¢ $10 606d
Celtics vs. Wizards SELL Wizards $0 606d
Celtics vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 12¢ $1 606d
Celtics vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 11¢ $1 606d
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024? SELL No 85¢ $10 606d
Suns vs. Clippers BUY Suns 32¢ $1 606d
Suns vs. Clippers BUY Suns 36¢ $1 606d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records