Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x4117…a439 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$949 (+7%) realized +$949 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 600d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$1,556
other 16% +$1,536
sports 12% −$256
politics 4% +$321
world 1% $0
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -32.4% -38.8% 22% 22% -18.8%
≤30d 9 -32.4% -38.8% 22% 22% -18.8%
≤90d 9 -32.4% -38.8% 22% 22% -18.8%
all 30 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 33% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 33% +10.9%
10% -16.5% 27% +0.3%
15% -24.6% 17% -9.4%
20% -31.9% 17% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$530) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$57 · ×4.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.98 per $1 lost it wins $4.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$949
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage600d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $765 +$172 +22%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $271 −$237 -87%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $65 −$48 -73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $67 −$2 -3%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $11 −$7 -62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 $0 -2%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Jan 19 $1 $0 -26%
Will Trump Media acquire a crypto exchange in 2024? Jan 19 $0 $0 -100%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? Jan 15 $0 $0 +33%
GPT-5 released in 2024? Dec 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will MicroStrategy hold 400k+ BTC before 2025? Dec 15 $1 +$3 +257%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? Nov 30 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy? Nov 30 $1 +$4 +300%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 30 $4,091 +$1,259 +31%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Nov 29 $2,825 +$103 +4%
Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight rigged? Nov 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Nov 23 $672 +$92 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November? Nov 22 $240 +$7 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Nov 21 $324 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? Nov 21 $1,029 +$156 +15%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $982 −$426 -43%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $1,800 +$1,830 +102%
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 15 $54 −$5 -9%
Israel military strike against Iran in November? Nov 14 $177 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $530 +$326 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 68¢ $381 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 65¢ $381 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 64¢ $384 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 81¢ $216 21h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 16¢ $17 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 20¢ $30 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 10¢ $0 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $2 37h
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 37h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 56¢ $65 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 56¢ $65 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 43¢ $7 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 57¢ $7 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 56¢ $67 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 42¢ $64 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 34¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 33¢ $3 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 62¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 34¢ $69 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
GPT-5 released in 2024? SELL No 98¢ $1 560d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? SELL No 99¢ $663 575d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? SELL No 23¢ $67 576d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 20¢ $58 576d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.97 (match) · 272 history records