Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4117…0c4d other 48 markets active 6d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$35 (-3%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$46
crypto 14% +$5
world 11% $0
tech 5% +$2
culture 4% +$8
politics 3% $0
economics 1% −$2
finance 1% +$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 +6.0% -4.1% 40% 30% -7.3%
≤90d 23 -8.9% -17.6% 39% 26% -16.8%
all 40 -3.2% -12.4% 55% 28% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 28% -13.4%
10% -20.8% 12% -21.6%
15% -28.5% 5% -29.2%
20% -35.5% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)40 / 48
History coverage122d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 75¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+31%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 50¢ 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-59%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 19 $8 +$2 +23%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 06 $26 +$4 +15%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 30 $24 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $50 −$1 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 25 $35 −$6 -17%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $26 −$22 -85%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 14 $48 $0 -0%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in March? Apr 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 04 $12 +$2 +16%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 04 $41 +$14 +33%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $52 −$15 -28%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 19 $37 +$8 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $31 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 03 $59 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $78 −$1 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Feb 27 $21 $0 -0%
Did Avenir Tech LTD blow up? Feb 27 $17 $0 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Feb 21 $9 $0 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Feb 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Feb 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? Feb 14 $2 +$2 +74%
Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 14 $1 $0 +39%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 11? Feb 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Feb 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 14 $5 $0 +1%
Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Feb 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 5d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 5d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 12d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 12d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 19d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 93¢ $6 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 83¢ $9 29d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $5 29d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 81¢ $10 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 89¢ $4 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 34d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 30¢ $5 34d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 42¢ $2 37d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 42¢ $2 37d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 42¢ $1 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.57 · official $29.03 · 169 history records