Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
41 0x4117…539e other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$16 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate66%31W / 16L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$6
other 37% +$6
crypto 2% −$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 34% -7.3%
≤30d 47 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 34% -7.3%
≤90d 47 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 34% -7.3%
all 47 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 34% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 34% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 26% -16.2%
15% -23.8% 19% -24.3%
20% -31.3% 15% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses31 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)47 / 55
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 1 Team WE 93¢ 66¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 24 $43 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $30 +$2 +7%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +18%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $43 +$3 +8%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $6 −$1 -23%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $2 $0 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 +$3 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +53%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $1 +$1 +78%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $3 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $1 $0 +30%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $3 −$2 -50%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -5%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $4 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $1 +$1 +59%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +61%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $3 $0 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 −$3 -69%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +138%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 21 $3 $0 -4%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $5 +$1 +29%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$3 +249%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $5 +$2 +35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $3 +$1 +36%
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +11%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +51%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $1 $0 -47%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 19 $1 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso SELL ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $20 27m
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu BUY Team WE 93¢ $15 28m
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu BUY Team WE 94¢ $5 30m
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $20 34m
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso SELL ONSIDE GAMING 94¢ $22 37m
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 98¢ $10 47m
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 97¢ $10 49m
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 92¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MOUZ 100¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 100¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MOUZ 93¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 94¢ $25 7h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 96¢ $35 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 10h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 95¢ $1 11h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 99¢ $31 14h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 87¢ $10 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 18h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 34¢ $1 22h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 66¢ $4 22h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 36¢ $1 22h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 88¢ $5 23h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Bald 100¢ $6 24h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 86¢ $5 24h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 96¢ $30 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.87 · official $41.87 (match) · 146 history records