Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4116…819c other 776 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,044 (-11%) realized −$1,044 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%238W / 536L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$28
14 days−$10
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$644
sports 19% −$342
world 4% −$16
crypto 2% −$22
finance 1% −$45
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -57.3% -61.4% 16% 16% -39.6%
≤30d 130 -35.5% -41.7% 20% 18% -47.2%
≤90d 583 -38.9% -44.7% 20% 19% -50.0%
all 774 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 26% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 26% -19.6%
10% -32.1% 24% -27.3%
15% -38.7% 22% -34.3%
20% -44.7% 20% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$1,044
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses238 / 536
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)774 / 776
History coverage155d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 774 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +226%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +116%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Chile? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Chile? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Chile? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $7 +$1 +22%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $5 $0 -3%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $8 $0 -1%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 07 $6 −$3 -58%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $5 −$1 -11%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 +$5 +89%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $12 +$14 +120%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $2 $0 -17%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $71 −$67 -95%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3 +$4 +136%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5 May 31 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CSyD Macará win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? May 29 $11 −$10 -88%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $13 −$12 -92%
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-27? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 53m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 53m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $6 58m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $11 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Nigeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $8 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 48¢ $5 6d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Northern Ireland? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Northern Ireland? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Northern Ireland? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 61¢ $7 7d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 59¢ $1 7d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 7d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 7d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 48¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.51 · official $20.51 (match) · 1997 history records