Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4113…5cc6 crypto 1343 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-1%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate78%1110W / 307L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day123.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$279
7 days−$296
14 days−$368
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 503 -21.6% -29.1% 62% 46% -25.6%
≤30d 1417 -9.4% -18.0% 78% 29% -13.6%
≤90d 1417 -9.4% -18.0% 78% 29% -13.6%
all 1417 -9.4% -18.0% 78% 29% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 29% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 9% -21.8%
15% -33.0% 3% -29.4%
20% -39.6% 2% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1110 / 307
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1417 / 1343
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day123.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1417 Trades
no open positions (248 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.86 · official $2.86 (match) · 3500 history records