Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4111…f031
crypto · 81 markets active 0h ago
5.0score
+$5 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses56 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage127d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 81 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $91 −$10 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$29 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $105 +$37 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$6 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $37 −$24 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $56 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $117 +$39 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $105 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $105 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $183 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $79 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $27 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 06 $900 −$900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 06 $1,219 −$1,219 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 06 $82 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 06 $1,100 +$73 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 06 $113 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 06 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 06 $140 −$91 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 06 $1,000 +$150 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 06 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 06 $57 +$7 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $13 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $17 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +12.5% +1.7% 70% 49% -2.0%
≤30d 37 +12.5% +1.7% 70% 49% -2.0%
≤90d 37 +12.5% +1.7% 70% 49% -2.0%
all 81 +13.2% +2.4% 69% 47% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 47% -9.4%
10% -7.4% 26% -18.1%
15% -16.3% 17% -26.0%
20% -24.5% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records