Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4110…0b93 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$40 (+9%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day46.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$31
other 16% +$11
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -31.1% -37.6% 40% 31% -15.3%
≤30d 42 -31.1% -37.6% 40% 31% -15.3%
≤90d 42 -31.1% -37.6% 40% 31% -15.3%
all 42 -31.1% -37.6% 40% 31% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.6% 31% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -43.6% 21% -23.4%
15% -49.0% 19% -30.8%
20% -54.0% 12% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$6 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$35 +98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $45 −$2 -5%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $24 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records