Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4110…f55b sports 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-8%) realized −$85 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate59%50W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$72
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$5
sports 48% −$86
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -9.3% -17.9% 64% 34% -17.9%
≤30d 85 -9.5% -18.2% 59% 32% -18.4%
≤90d 85 -9.5% -18.2% 59% 32% -18.4%
all 85 -9.5% -18.2% 59% 32% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 32% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 18% -26.2%
15% -33.1% 11% -33.3%
20% -39.7% 5% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses50 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)85 / 91
History coverage8d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 85¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 −$2 -38%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$1 -28%
Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $4 +$1 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $9 +$1 +11%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $3 +$2 +49%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4 +$1 +29%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $4 +$1 +20%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$4 -21%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$1 -23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $7 −$6 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 17 $13 +$1 +7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +45%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +123%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 -17%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 17 $17 −$1 -7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -86%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 17 $17 −$6 -36%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 −$1 -71%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 −$1 -43%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 $0 -11%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 $0 -13%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 −$1 -20%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $3 $0 -11%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $3 −$1 -22%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +42%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$1 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +101%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $15 +$2 +16%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +44%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 17m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $3 34m
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $2 45m
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 55m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $4 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 96¢ $55 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 96¢ $50 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $10 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $10 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $10 3h
Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 3h
Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 3h
Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 3h
Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 3h
Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 94¢ $5 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.20 · official $59.21 (match) · 208 history records