Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x410f…57fe crypto 1345 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,016 (-3%) realized −$1,014 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate78%1043W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$1,122
14 days−$1,396
30 days−$1,139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$489
sports 9% −$547
weather 4% −$278
other 1% −$73
world 0% −$23
politics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -16.8% -24.7% 43% 35% -31.7%
≤30d 677 -3.8% -13.0% 69% 31% -14.2%
≤90d 1344 -2.9% -12.1% 78% 37% -13.4%
all 1344 -2.9% -12.1% 78% 37% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 37% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 13% -21.7%
15% -28.2% 7% -29.2%
20% -35.2% 5% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,014
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1043 / 301
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1344 / 1345
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 −$21 -34%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $71 −$6 -8%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $36 −$8 -23%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $26 −$4 -16%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $20 +$28 +140%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$9 -18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$10 -39%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$34 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$8 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$27 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$14 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$13 -62%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $51 −$47 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $24 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 33¢ $4 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $26 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 27¢ $28 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $36 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 33¢ $36 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $36 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $36 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $36 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $17 3h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 3h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $26 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $48 5h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 22¢ $20 7h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $20 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $22 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $16 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 32¢ $2 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $28 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $35 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3500 history records