Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x410c…7d2f other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,034 (+8%) realized +$6,795 · open −$761
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$2,771per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$14,699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$535
7 days+$1,382
14 days−$3,466
30 days−$3,466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$7,373
sports 5% +$765
world 3% −$575
politics 2% −$1,478
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.9% -13.1% 55% 45% +3.4%
≤30d 12 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 42% -31.1%
≤90d 12 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 42% -31.1%
all 23 +22.7% +11.0% 48% 39% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.0% 39% +0.3%
10% ← realistic here +0.4% 39% -9.3%
15% -9.3% 30% -18.1%
20% -18.2% 22% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,704) neutral
Persistence
early +60% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,857 vs −$1,131 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$14,699
Realized+$6,795
Unrealized−$761
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions6
Markets (closed)23 / 29
History coverage233d
Avg bet$2,771
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 74¢ $7,296 $6,704 −$593 (-8%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $4,963 $4,995 +$33 (+1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $2,001 $1,815 −$186 (-9%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 56¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 24¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,704 +$615 +23%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $250 −$245 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,008 +$386 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $502 −$19 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $274 +$226 +83%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,210 +$164 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,404 +$352 +25%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $216 +$237 +109%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,013 −$254 -25%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $4,875 −$4,848 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $2,322 −$575 -25%
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 24 $2,752 −$2,752 -100%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 08 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 05 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jan 23 $569 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Jan 14 $1,748 −$1,748 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $282 +$150 +53%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $30 +$270 +900%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $15,435 +$6,507 +42%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $20,541 +$11,512 +56%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $4,334 −$2,733 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $406 2h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 57¢ $506 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 24¢ $307 2h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 73¢ $1,549 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,704 42h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 42h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 50¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $248 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $482 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $502 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $274 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $2,374 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $2,210 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $692 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 63¢ $685 4d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $759 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $216 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $712 4d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $9,062 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $4,998 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4,875 7d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,019 7d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 7d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 39¢ $78 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 39¢ $1,409 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 39¢ $259 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 45¢ $13 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,699.07 · official $14,699.16 (match) · 228 history records