Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x410c…104b tech 3 markets active 524d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,969 (-95%) realized −$13,969 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,878per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 79% −$10,845
other 13% −$1,864
politics 9% −$1,260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -273% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$4,656 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13,969
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4,878
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 21 $11,510 −$10,845 -94%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 21 $1,864 −$1,864 -100%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Jan 21 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 2¢ $802 523d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 2¢ $99 523d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $99 523d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $601 524d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $99 524d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $102 524d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $99 524d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $99 524d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY Yes 10¢ $664 524d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $663 524d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY Yes 10¢ $740 524d
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,260 524d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY Yes 10¢ $460 524d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 2¢ $500 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 2¢ $500 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 2¢ $670 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $469 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 5¢ $501 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $500 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 3¢ $192 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $1 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $9 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $9 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $99 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $795 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $31 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $555 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $999 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 3¢ $391 525d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $269 525d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records