Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x4107…6bcd other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+4%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$8
politics 19% $0
tech 17% $0
world 14% $0
other 12% +$3
finance 1% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.0% -6.8% 80% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 8 +10.4% -0.1% 88% 38% -4.8%
≤90d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 83% 33% -5.1%
all 13 +1.3% -8.3% 85% 31% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 31% -5.1%
10% -17.1% 8% -14.2%
15% -25.1% 0% -22.5%
20% -32.4% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.52 per $1 lost it wins $12.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage141d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $73 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $99 +$5 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 03 $1 $0 +21%
Wild vs. Avalanche Jun 03 $1 $0 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +18%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 06 $1 $0 +5%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? May 06 $2 $0 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 06 $2 $0 +19%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Feb 28 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $80 1h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY No 94¢ $68 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $87 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $1 1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 88¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $55 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $76 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $103 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $73 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $99 17d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 17d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 84¢ $1 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 84¢ $1 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 84¢ $1 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 84¢ $2 45d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1 45d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 85¢ $1 45d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 77¢ $1 45d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 82¢ $1 45d
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $1 111d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 84¢ $2 111d
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $2 140d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? BUY 80k 94¢ $1 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.92 · official $233.92 (match) · 52 history records