Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4105…4ae3
sports · 16 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$15 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage532d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 1 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Australia $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Mar 30 $14 −$14 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 Mar 23 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8PM ET Feb 13 $15 +$15 +96%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5 Jan 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Nov 16 $20 +$19 +96%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $47 −$1 -2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Oct 08 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? Oct 02 $21 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Virtus.pro Sep 28 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 16 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament Jul 15 $73 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? Jul 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Mar 30 $2 −$1 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 35% −$44
culture 25% −$1
politics 16% −$2
crypto 13% +$33
other 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY Australia $3 2h
Netherlands vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $14 78d
RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 121d
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $23 140d
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $12 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 210d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 248d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 248d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $33 248d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $33 248d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 37¢ $29 248d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 248d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 254d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 55¢ $19 254d
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? SELL No 51¢ $21 254d
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? BUY No 53¢ $21 254d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Virtus.pro SELL M80 50¢ $32 258d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Virtus.pro BUY M80 51¢ $32 258d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 45¢ $50 332d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 45¢ $50 332d
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament SELL No 53¢ $70 332d
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament BUY No 56¢ $73 333d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 55¢ $74 333d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 55¢ $74 333d
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? SELL No 34¢ $28 333d
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? BUY No 35¢ $29 333d
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 440d
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 531d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 50% -20.6%
all 15 -5.1% -14.2% 20% 20% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 20% -12.2%
10% -22.4% 20% -20.6%
15% -29.9% 20% -28.3%
20% -36.8% 20% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.02 · official $2.02 (match) · 35 history records