Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4103…95f0 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$213 (-13%) realized −$211 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%32W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days+$15
14 days+$16
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$103
other 36% −$120
crypto 17% −$11
world 4% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.7% -3.4% 53% 53% -7.3%
≤30d 19 +1.3% -8.4% 53% 47% -14.0%
≤90d 19 +1.3% -8.4% 53% 47% -14.0%
all 70 -16.1% -24.1% 46% 44% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 44% -23.5%
10% -31.4% 30% -30.8%
15% -38.0% 16% -37.5%
20% -44.1% 10% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses32 / 38
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage105d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 38¢ 36¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$46 -90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 +$48 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$19 -62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$24 -78%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$18 -60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 +$30 +72%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$44 +109%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$14 +46%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $51 +$51 +100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$32 +308%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $56 +$2 +3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 15 $15 −$11 -71%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $20 −$8 -39%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Mar 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Burnley FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Mar 14 $17 +$5 +32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $40 −$32 -81%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $35 +$12 +35%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 12 $15 +$3 +20%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Mar 11 $25 +$5 +21%
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 11 $40 +$5 +12%
Pacers vs. Kings Mar 11 $32 −$6 -18%
Bulls vs. Warriors Mar 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Suns vs. Bucks Mar 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Raptors vs. Rockets Mar 11 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? Mar 08 $20 −$17 -87%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 06 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 06 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 06 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 06 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 06 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Mar 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Mar 04 $10 −$3 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $36 58m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 59m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $45 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 5¢ $5 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $51 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $104 31h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 20¢ $2 35h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 20¢ $10 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 2¢ $3 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 9¢ $15 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 1¢ $4 36h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $30 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $15 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $56 44h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 79¢ $60 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 19¢ $12 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 45¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 76¢ $70 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $41 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $40 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $32 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $25 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 86¢ $44 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.43 · official $83.43 (match) · 163 history records