Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4101…3a31
crypto · 159 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$79 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$79 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses61 / 95
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)156 / 159
History coverage56d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 156 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +203%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 25 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 23 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 23 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 23 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? Apr 22 $1 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$4 -40%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 -8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 22 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 22 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 22 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 22 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 22 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 22 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 22 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$2 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% −$69
other 5% −$10
sports 3% −$2
politics 1% −$2
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 33% +16.3%
≤30d 5 -22.7% -30.1% 20% 20% -9.2%
≤90d 156 -35.0% -41.2% 39% 30% -26.7%
all 156 -35.0% -41.2% 39% 30% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 30% -26.7%
10% -46.8% 23% -33.7%
15% -52.0% 17% -40.1%
20% -56.7% 11% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.64 · official $3.64 (match) · 443 history records