Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x40ff…d52f other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$61 (+1%) realized +$45 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$818now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$266
7 days+$670
14 days+$670
30 days+$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$667
tech 13% −$33
crypto 3% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +31.5% +19.0% 100% 100% +18.8%
≤30d 12 +3.3% -6.5% 75% 58% +7.1%
≤90d 12 +3.3% -6.5% 75% 58% +7.1%
all 12 +3.3% -6.5% 75% 58% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 58% +7.1%
10% -15.5% 50% -3.1%
15% -23.6% 17% -12.5%
20% -31.1% 17% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$81 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$818
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage29d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $285 $291 +$6 (+2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 79¢ 78¢ $272 $271 −$1 (-0%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $127 $134 +$6 (+5%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $118 $123 +$5 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 24 $312 +$105 +34%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $551 +$161 +29%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 19 $1,280 +$404 +32%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $21 +$5 +24%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 10 $41 +$7 +18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $81 +$52 +65%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $207 −$75 -36%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? Jun 02 $128 +$7 +6%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $30 +$19 +64%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $117 −$117 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 79¢ $250 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 78¢ $1 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 76¢ $8 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 75¢ $1 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 76¢ $13 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $43 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $9 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 4h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $180 4h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $105 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $108 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $102 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $188 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $15 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 11h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 12h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 12h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $71 13h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $60 14h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 15h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 15h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $65 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 36h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 36h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 37h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 37h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 37h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $817.69 · official $817.69 (match) · 129 history records