Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40fe…3bfd other 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,742 (-11%) realized −$3,339 · open −$403
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%152W / 235L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$110
14 days−$3
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$1,314
economics 27% −$822
tech 12% −$401
culture 8% −$492
finance 7% −$22
world 4% +$105
crypto 4% −$189
politics 2% −$31
sports 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.1% -31.4% 20% 20% -34.4%
≤30d 16 -10.4% -19.0% 50% 31% -10.5%
≤90d 129 -37.8% -43.7% 27% 18% -16.3%
all 387 -18.6% -26.4% 39% 29% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 29% -18.7%
10% -33.4% 22% -26.5%
15% -39.9% 17% -33.6%
20% -45.8% 12% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$2,642
Realized−$3,339
Unrealized−$403
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses152 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)387 / 399
History coverage234d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 54¢ 64¢ $900 $1,054 +$154 (+17%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 48¢ 47¢ $600 $589 −$11 (-2%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $525 $514 −$11 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 42¢ 30¢ $230 $163 −$67 (-29%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $491 $103 −$388 (-79%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No 51¢ 33¢ $40 $26 −$14 (-35%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+29%)
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $23 $4 −$18 (-80%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-89%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 18 $182 −$68 -37%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 18 $124 −$41 -33%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 −$10 -24%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $52 +$9 +17%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $101 +$31 +30%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 07 $334 +$28 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $72 +$41 +56%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $90 +$6 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 06 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $96 +$35 +36%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 26 $1 $0 -22%
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? May 22 $53 −$46 -88%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? May 21 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 20 $25 −$17 -68%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 20 $21 −$19 -93%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 17 $1 $0 -34%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -10%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? May 16 $54 −$6 -12%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? May 16 $65 −$41 -64%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? May 16 $115 −$33 -29%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? May 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 15 $64 +$16 +25%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $5 −$2 -40%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 12 $3 −$1 -46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $70 +$2 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $190 +$74 +39%
Will Circle Internet (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings? May 11 $178 +$21 +12%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? May 07 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? May 07 $5 −$1 -23%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on May 06 $10 −$2 -20%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO May 03 $20 −$2 -11%
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10 May 03 $75 +$6 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $207 −$9 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $27 −$3 -12%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 21 $435 −$8 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $13 +$6 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 17 $427 −$280 -66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $55 −$25 -45%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $32 +$9 +27%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $52 −$23 -44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $12 +$3 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 14 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $18 −$7 -37%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $510 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,979 24h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 13¢ $47 25h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 54¢ $83 25h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $21 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $36 26h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 99¢ $331 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $21 13d
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $113 13d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $34 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $54 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $20 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $51 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $1 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 53¢ $17 25d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 28d
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,642.20 · official $2,642.20 (match) · 1766 history records