Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40f7…1f5e sports 588 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46,249 (-29%) realized −$46,366 · open +$117
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%268W / 319L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$1,942est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$474
14 days−$1,297
30 days−$9,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$18,994
crypto 31% −$8,016
other 3% −$2,343
world 1% +$29
tech 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 51% -15.4%
≤30d 256 -16.8% -24.7% 48% 43% -23.0%
≤90d 587 -18.5% -26.3% 46% 43% -26.8%
all 587 -18.5% -26.3% 46% 43% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 43% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 38% -33.8%
15% -39.8% 32% -40.2%
20% -45.7% 25% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -20% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$230 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$46,366
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses268 / 319
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,942
Open positions1
Markets (closed)587 / 588
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$267
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 26¢ 64¢ $81 $198 +$117 (+144%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $61 +$20 +32%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $211 −$157 -74%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $98 +$82 +83%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $108 +$32 +29%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $93 +$12 +13%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $101 −$39 -39%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $156 +$3 +2%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $226 +$93 +41%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $26 +$39 +152%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $26 −$25 -99%
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 20 $46 −$44 -95%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $37 +$16 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 20 $216 −$214 -99%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $202 +$137 +68%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $60 +$25 +42%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $46 −$45 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $28 +$18 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$15 +84%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $375 +$132 +35%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $211 −$208 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $370 −$306 -83%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $229 −$224 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $513 −$504 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $453 +$289 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $776 −$774 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $1,152 +$47 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $351 +$1,232 +351%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $287 +$63 +22%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $206 +$55 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $98 +$137 +139%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $32 +$67 +212%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $126 −$95 -76%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $244 −$240 -98%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $45 −$45 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$35 -96%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $132 −$129 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $109 +$58 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $67 +$33 +49%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $56 −$54 -97%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $98 +$50 +51%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $164 −$160 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $81 13m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $81 17m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $58 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $3 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 14¢ $54 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $211 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 82¢ $180 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $98 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Jessica Pegula 66¢ $131 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 50¢ $99 4h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 50¢ $1 4h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 59¢ $9 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 52¢ $3 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 52¢ $3 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 52¢ $3 5h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 88¢ $93 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 28¢ $62 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 45¢ $101 6h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 59¢ $152 7h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 59¢ $4 7h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 59¢ $3 7h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 57¢ $47 8h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 58¢ $110 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 68¢ $110 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Katerina Siniakova 41¢ $75 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 25¢ $46 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 41¢ $1 11h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 43¢ $2 11h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Liudmila Samsonova 50¢ $2 11h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Liudmila Samsonova 50¢ $12 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.92 · official $197.92 (match) · 3500 history records